Why did most of the installs I paid Google Ads for come from bots?
Indie developers and small businesses spend a few hundred dollars on ads and get clicks and installs that never do anything, then find the ad platform will not explain or refund it.
Category: Marketing, Sales & CRM · Trend: AI Infra · Opportunity score: 7.6 / 10
What is the “Why did most of the installs I paid Google Ads for come from bots?” problem in 2026?
Indie developers and small businesses spend a few hundred dollars on ads and get clicks and installs that never do anything, then find the ad platform will not explain or refund it.
Who has this problem?
Indie app makers, solo founders and small businesses spending under a few thousand dollars a month on Google, Meta or Reddit ads.
Recorded source context
Dataset source note: Reading all the comments, it seems quite bleak to advertise. How do indies and SMBs reach audience these days then?
This note may summarize the referenced material rather than quote it verbatim. Source label: Hacker News discussion of a post about paying for Google app ads and getting bot installs, 11 September 2026, 764 points, 434 comments. (primary source).
Existing players in this space
- Google Ads IP exclusions: Manual blocking of data center ranges, which commenters say grows to thousands of entries.
- ClickCease (CHEQ): Click fraud blocking for search ads, less help with app installs and in-app events.
- TrafficGuard: Ad fraud prevention built mainly for larger performance marketing budgets.
What existing players are missing
A small-budget ad audit that joins ad clicks with app and site events, scores each campaign for bot patterns (data center IPs, zero engagement, install bursts), turns the evidence into exclusion lists and a refund claim, and tells the founder plainly which channel is worth the next $100.
How Real Problem AI scores this opportunity
Aggregate score: 7.6 / 10. Four-axis rubric:
- Problem severity: 8 / 10
- AI feasibility today: 7 / 10
- Market signal: 9 / 10
- Competition gap: 6 / 10
How to build a solution: stack hints
- Ad platform and analytics APIs
- Anomaly detection on click and install events
- IP and device reputation lookups
- LLM-written refund claims and weekly report
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